Declines in Conception Rates Predict U.S. #Recessions HT @WSJ

New research suggests that the declines in conception growth (fewer pregnancies) are a reliable predictor of US recessions.

Source: @kevinrinz, @Kasey_Buckles; Read full article

 "for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for conceptions begins to fall several quarters prior to economic decline. Our findings suggest that fertility behavior is more forward-looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought." 

www.nber.org/papers/w24355.pdf

Here is the comparison against the unemployment rate.

Source: @kevinrinz, @Kasey_Buckles; Read full article